Conservative Majority- Not going to happen

According to the latest polls the Conservatives may win a majority government. I don't believe in polls. As one of my favourite talk show hosts John Moore pointed out Friday on his show in the last election the party that led early ended up losing the election.

This time around Stephen Harper is the seasoned veteran. He comes from a position of strength only because his was the governing party at dissolution. His policies were shaky at times. The environment, and Quebec as a nation were notable mistakes in my book- I'm surprised neither has yet been brought up. And since the official dissolution of parliament last Sunday morning, his has been a fairly gaffe-prone campaign. So much so that when he made the announcement that 2011 would see the end of Canadian troops in Afghanistan, we were talking about his suspended communications advisor instead of the announcement. It sure takes away from the debate, which, elections are allegedly for.

Another reason he won't win a majority: Canadians are still wary of the party. When he won in 2006 he didn't have the deepest talent pool to choose from for his cabinet. And his cabinet wasn't of the greatest quality, and so made a lot of mistakes. See Bernier, Maxime. That gentleman's mistakes alone should lead to questioning Harper's own leadership. Not to mention the mishandling of the Environment portfolio by Rona Ambrose, or the speak without a briefing antics by Gordon O'Connor. It's no wonder the majroity of us still don't trust him.

The Conservative Party is showing itself to be undemocratic. I know of at least two ridings (Halton, and Guelph) where candidates have been parachuted in much to the dismay of local riding associations who already had their own candidate in place. Talk about killing democracy.

The Liberals aren't going to win, and may in fact lose some ridings to either NDP or Greens. Dion has not only his party's campaign to worry about, but his own leadership should they badly lose. He is passionate about the environment, and that could carry him through a lot. His main flaw is his grasp of the English language- I know it's a lot harder to pick up a second language as an adult but if you're going to lead a major national party you should start learning it long before you ascend to that office.

The Greens I think will end up playing a major role in this election, perhaps even winning their first seat in Parliament. Elizabeth May's presence at the leaders debates signals that party's arrival as a force on the national stage. Many people could end up voting Green.

I feel rather sorry for Jack and his New Democrats. He has been forced to move his party from the far left, and will likely be squeezed for votes by the Liberals and Greens. The NDP will maintain its status as Canada's social conscience for the foreseeable future.

A Conservative majority isn't going to happen. Instead they will win an increased minority. Because despite all his flaws, Stephen Harper is the most stable thing going right now. And we're going to need stability if the economic forecasts turn out to be true.